Jimmy Garoppolo was the mistake they just couldn’t overcome. General manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels made plenty of mistakes before Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis fired them both on Tuesday, but it was their choice at quarterback that ultimately did them in.
Their earlier decision to part ways with Derek Carr this past offseason was a completely justifiable move. The franchise had failed to win a single playoff game in Carr’s nine years as a starter and made the playoffs only twice. Carr was coming off one of the worst seasons of his career in 2022. Even though they extended his contract just a few months earlier, releasing Carr (who went in to sign with the New Orleans Saints) could easily be explained. Davis himself agreed and signed off on it.
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However, getting the results they did from Garoppolo, the expensive veteran quarterback they brought in to replace Carr, was unacceptable. And both Ziegler and McDaniels paid for it with their jobs.
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Garoppolo has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. Full stop.
In Garoppolo’s six starts — he missed one game with a concussion and another because of a back injury — he has completed 65.5 percent of his passes (18th in the league) for 1,205 yards (27th), seven touchdowns (T-24th) and nine interceptions (most in the league). The Raiders hoped Garoppolo’s return from a back injury against the Detroit Lions on Monday would give them a lift, but he was terrible. Overall, he’s having easily the worst season of his career.
.@Lions intercept it on the very next play!
📺: #LVvsDET on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2023
With their quarterback playing poorly, the run game nonexistent — Garoppolo’s inability to stretch the field vertically has played a factor — and the offensive line sharply regressing, the offense has stunk. The unit previously led by coordinator Mick Lombardi, who was also fired Tuesday, is averaging just 15.7 points per game (30th), 268.3 yards per game (31st) and 4.6 yards per play (27th). The offense was the primary reason the Raiders fell into a 3-5 hole this season. And after their latest debacle, a 26-14 loss to the Lions on “Monday Night Football,” Davis couldn’t take it any longer.
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Following Davis’ decision to let Ziegler and McDaniels go, he made linebackers coach Antonio Pierce the interim head coach and elevated assistant general manager Champ Kelly to the interim GM role.
Davis allowed them to make the call that Garoppolo won’t be the quarterback going forward. The need to make that move was clear to anyone who watched him play this season, but they needed the owner’s blessing to make it. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will start Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.
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Most teams viewed O’Connell as a developmental backup going into this year’s draft, and that’s what the Raiders intended him to be. But he showed more promise than expected in the preseason and looked functional despite committing three turnovers in a Week 4 start against the Los Angeles Chargers. Even if O’Connell doesn’t turn into the long-term answer at quarterback, the Raiders don’t have anything to lose by giving themselves a chance to find out.
How O’Connell plays from here will be a factor, certainly, but it remains unclear how the Raiders will move forward at quarterback after all but sealing Garoppolo’s fate with the franchise.
On the surface, moving on from Garoppolo after this season seems an easy choice to make, but doing so would be costly. If they release him before June 1, 2024, the Raiders would take a $28.3 million dead-cap hit in 2024, according to Spotrac. The 2024 hit would be reduced to $15.5 million if they cut him with a post-June 1 designation, but then they’d also take a $12.8 million dead-money hit in 2025. Both of those figures would be far more favorable for the Raiders if they traded Garoppolo, but it’s highly unlikely that another team would take him on at his salary given his current level of play.
In many ways, the Raiders find themselves facing the same conundrum they wound up in toward the end of last season. Carr had one of the worst seasons of his career and played a big role in the team finishing 6-11. Ziegler, McDaniels and Davis agreed that it was time for him to go.
Heading into this offseason, Garoppolo wasn’t the Raiders’ first choice to succeed Carr. They initially had their sights set on Tom Brady, who was set to become a free agent, but the greatest quarterback of all time opted to retire for a second time. From there, the Raiders explored trade talks with the Green Bay Packers to inquire about quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but they deemed the price — both the trade compensation and Rodgers’ pay — too steep. They then looked into trading for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft before the Bears made a deal with the Panthers, but that asking price was too rich for their blood, too.
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The Raiders held the No. 7 pick in the draft and could’ve still made a move for a quarterback in the first round, but they weren’t as high on the draft class beyond former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. So, with free agency approaching, the Raiders turned to the veteran market. On the first day of free agency, they closed in on Garoppolo, whom McDaniels had helped draft and develop when he was with the New England Patriots.
The Raiders essentially pledged to pay Garoppolo for a season and a half when they signed him to a three-year, $72.5 million contract in March. Of that money, $33.75 million — his 2023 base salary and an $11.25 million roster bonus in 2024 — was fully guaranteed at signing. Garoppolo’s 2024 base salary of $11.25 million won’t become guaranteed until the third day of the 2024 league year.
When Garoppolo arrived at Raiders headquarters to take his physical before signing his contract, though, a major snag emerged. The broken foot Garoppolo suffered with the San Francisco 49ers last December hadn’t fully healed. He failed his physical and would need surgery.
The Raiders could’ve backed out of the agreement entirely, but they didn’t have a good backup plan. They instead made a revised agreement that would allow them to void the deal if Garoppolo didn’t pass a physical before the start of training camp. Garoppolo passed his physical in July and, in response, the Raiders deepened their commitment to him in September when they converted $21.3 million of his 2023 salary into a signing bonus. While that lowered his cap hit this year to just over $6.7 million, it raised his 2024 cap hit to over $28.5 million.
The restructure was a big bet on Garoppolo, and it has not gone well. The season isn’t even halfway over and his Raiders career could effectively be kaput. The original structure of Garoppolo’s contract created a window for the Raiders to move on before his base salary for next season became fully guaranteed. But now there’s no way out of the painful financial repercussions if they choose to cut their losses after the season.
Cutting Garoppolo would be a tough pill to swallow, but taking the financial loss may be a better outcome than sticking with a highly paid, oft-injured, aging quarterback who has shown he isn’t good enough. The cost of doing so would probably take them out of the veteran quarterback market, but the Raiders currently hold the No. 8 pick in the draft and could feasibly be in a position to draft his replacement. Perhaps O’Connell plays well enough that they don’t have to.
The Raiders’ next head coach and general manager will certainly have a lot of say in the direction the team takes at quarterback. If the last 22 months have taught us anything, it’s that they’d better get it right.
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(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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