15. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
Deandre Ayton looks the part on offense. So much of what he does comes within the flow of the offense, which is saying something when considering the roster he played on as a rookie.
He is frisky when moving off the ball and makes quick decisions on the catch. The league has craftier post operators, but he doesn't need to overload his possessions with tricks and gimmicks. He works in a nice mix of hooks and fades.
Phoenix needs to plumb Ayton's range a little bit more. Green-lighting him from distance is the easy call. If they're not going to do that—and they didn't during the preseason—then he should at least be empowered to face up from the top of the key or further and attack the basket.
It is way too early to make a call about Ayton's defense. That's a good thing. He was a train wreck at the beginning of the year but statistically fared better protecting the rim after the All-Star break and showed the moxie to make some plays in space.
Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Jared Jackson Jr. commandeered most of last season's rookie spotlight. Ayton's introduction to the league, while perhaps not as impressive, was no less encouraging. He's the only newbie in league history to clear 16 points and 10 rebounds with a true shooting percentage above 60.
14. Jonas Valanciunas, Memphis Grizzlies
Jonas Valanciunas is best suited on a veteran team that won't potentially cap his usage in favor of quirkier small-ball lineups or younger frontcourt combinations. His standing in Memphis is obscured by the Grizzlies' rebuild. He will start upon return from his foot surgery, but to what extent will they feature him with Brandon Clarke and Jackson in the fold?
Take Valanciunas' time with the Grizzlies last season as a harbinger of what's to come, and role reduction isn't an issue. He absolutely feasted during his 17 games in Memphis, averaging 19.9 points, 10.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists while burying 56.3 percent of his two-pointers.
A fuzzy chain of command should afford Valanciunas more freedom. Memphis doesn't have a born playmaker after escapist-dribble extraordinaire Ja Morant. Kyle Anderson is probably their second-best passer.
Feeding Valanciunas helps the Grizzlies to work around that iffiness. The Toronto Raptors used him as more of a roll man in recent years, but he retains his bullishness and touch around the block. He averaged more than 1.11 points per post-up possession last season.
Or, put another way, Valanciunas post-ups yielded about the same value as Brook Lopez spot-ups.
13. Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
Clint Capela is taking a dive relative to last season's list. You'll be forgiven if that doesn't quite track. He's coming off a year in which he averaged career highs in minutes (33.7), points (16.6), rebounds (12.7) and even free-throw shooting (63.6 percent).
There is unsung value in a player who understands his role, takes ownership of it and, just as importantly, doesn't try to play outside it. That's Capela. But a little more variance would be nice. As SI.com's Rob Mahoney wrote:
"Yet the fact that Capela can be played off the floor—even if in rather extreme situations—does diminish his value relative to other wings and guards. Every big in today's game needs a way to leverage their size against smaller players. Capela is still finding his, particularly when the smaller opponents in question can deny him clean rolls to the rim."
Matchup problems aren't as abundant this side of the Golden State Warriors' dissolution. They still exist. Beyond that, it is fair to wonder whether, given the confines in which he plays, Capela has maxed out his potential.
12. Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks
Slower-footed bigs should look to Brook Lopez for the blueprint to thrive in today's NBA. He has withstood the march toward positionless basketball by jacking threes, protecting the rim and perfecting his defensive stances when getting switched onto guards.
Lopez canned a career-best 36.5 percent of his treys last year. And yet, it isn't just that he hit them. It is how often he was taking them, and where he was launching them from. He attempted 6.3 threes per game, a large portion of which came from 27 feet and beyond.
That looong distance isn't just a luxury for the Bucks. It is a necessity. Lopez is removing both himself and, because he's an actual outside threat, the opposing big from the paint. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe don't have as much room to maneuver without him letting loose from way downtown.
Nor does Milwaukee click as easily if Lopez isn't willing to work almost exclusively without the ball. Almost 80 percent of his buckets came off assists in 2018-19. That number was under 60 percent not terribly long ago, in 2015-16. Lopez has a featured option's background, so this evolution cannot be minimized. (He can still get a bucket on the block.)
Pairing plug-and-play offense with stout rim protection completes his transition into the ideal non-star big. No other player has ever averaged more than two blocks and two made threes per game. Just the Milwaukee version of him.
11. Marc Gasol, Toronto Raptors
Marc Gasol is a cornerstone in micro. This is not to say he's small. He's actually quite large. Rather, it's a nod to his value as a centerpiece in spurts.
Entering his age-35 season, Gasol is not fit to be the most important player on a postseason squad. But he can carry lineups begging for a playmaker, and his defense hits nicely within collective efforts. (The Eastern Conference Semifinals, anyone?)
Toronto won the minutes Gasol played without Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry last season. His passing and, when he's aggressive, shooting can float bench-heavy units going up against other second-stringers.
The Raptors need this to hold over a larger sample this year. Lowry and Pascal Siakam will be on the bench together at some point, and the offense is stocked with fewer shooters. Gasol is Toronto's only hope of navigating those minutes—and one of the most important pieces when it comes to the larger task of softening the blow from Leonard's departure.
